The 12th set of UN climate talks since 1992 is underway in Nairobi. Maybe someone should have sent the organizers of this very large (ministers from 189 countries) and very long (2 weeks) UN meeting a copy of the paper, HOW TO MAKE BETTER FORECASTS AND DECISIONS: AVOID FACE-TO-FACE MEETINGS by J. Scott Armstrong.
We rely heavily on face-to-face meetings, which are more expensive than alternative approaches, even though it is difficult to find evidence that supports their use. Although evidence-based principles exist for running face-to-face meetings effectively, they are used so rarely that we must turn to more practical solutions. In fact, a pattern of evidence suggests that prediction markets, nominal groups, and virtual teams allow for a more effective use of a group’s collective wisdom. Technology has enhanced the value of these approaches.